See & Be Seen?

Despite the fact that I've been trying to shield myself from the everday barrage of financial news, you'd pretty much have to be living in a cave to not know that the economy doesn't seem to be getting any better. People were first predicting a mid 2009 return. Then it got pushed out to the end of 2009. Now people are saying 2010 or maybe even 2011 before the market gets all of the toxicity out of its system.

With every continued day of bad news, I've been taking a look at my budget for this year and figuring out where things can be cut without impacting the brand. One of the big things that keeps jumping out at me is my tradeshow costs and I go back and forth on whether it's worth it to show up to the second of my two tradeshows this year. As a little background, the show used to be "THE" show everyone went to if you were serious about getting buyers for the holiday season. And two years ago, at the height of the market, I would have said that was still the case. However another tradeshow decided to place themselves a few weeks ahead and in the past two years it seems as though more and more people are showing up to the first show. Part of that, I think, is that for many people the first show is in Vegas and it's always possible to get cheap tickets and cheap lodging in Vegas if you're willing to look hard enough. The second show is outside of a major city centered around a convention center so whenever there's a convention in town all the local hotel rooms shoot up in price. Your alternative is to drive an hour to get to the city which isn't really realistic for most buyers or exhibitors. That's not to say the second show isn't busy. There are still a ton of people there, but the show has become a lot more regional now with buyers driving in from the surrounding area and at the end of the day that surrounding area is not my customer base.

Had you asked me three months ago, I was adimant about attending both shows. But as the economy continues to worsen and I try to brace myself to have the business financially survive this recession/depression with a product which is, at the end of the day, a luxury item in terms of Need vs. Want, I wonder how smart it is to attend that second show. I've already put down my deposit for it so I would be out $500 if I bailed now, but a quick calculation indicates that at the end of the day, after all booth costs are paid for, furniture shipped, airplane tickets, hotel tickets, etc - there's another $3000 going out the door before anything is coming in. Will the show this year net enough to at least cover those costs? Does it make sense to go and be "seen" so that people know you're still around or will doing print advertising suffice to let people know we're open for business?

I'm going back and forth on this one and just don't know what the right answer is. Thankfully I have a little more time to see how everything plays out before having to pay off the final amount on the tradeshow booth. What would you do?